Rebound in the markets – Cryptocurrencies are going through a complicated period with altcoins that sometimes lost more than 90% since november 2021 and Bitcoin lost more than 60%. Bitcoin still chained nine red candles in a row. It is simply historic. While a majority of analysts already saw a Bitcoin close to $20,000he decided, for the moment, to keep the ultimate support at $29,000. Bitcoin remained for almost twenty days between $28,700 and $30,700, without the market making a decision. The stock market is rebounding, but is the rebound just a correction of the recent fall or is it a change in trend? Are players ready to put their money in risky assets again?
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Bitcoin breaks out of the range: direction $35,000?
As explained in the introduction, the Bitcoin was stuck between two terminals for several weeks. Yesterday Bitcoin closed above $31,500 :
Bitcoin is again in a daily bullish momentum since the close, yesterday, above $31,500. Buyers need to continue to avoid re-entering the range. At the moment, there is a double resistance near $35,000 : the first stop (0.382 Fibonacci retracement) and the bearish trendline (black).
Bitcoin is changing its momentum and this is giving air to altcoins which have suffered sharply from the declines lately. Altcoins like Solana or Cardano that are in the top 10 by capitalization have lost 90% from the local top.
The momentum could effect a bullish divergence in the event of a fence above 70 of RSI. This would show that sellers are losing strength.
We see that there have been many open positions (rise in open interest) in the derivatives market (Binance perpetual contract). The funding is neutralbut the long/short ratio shows that there were a lot of short positions in this range. Currently, these sellers are stuck and Bitcoin would have to continue to rise to accentuate the buying pressure.
Safe haven assets: gold stagnates and the dollar falls
Gold could come back close to $1,790
The gold is in bearish momentum for a few weeks and buyers are struggling to reverse the trend. Currently, the price is stagnating around $1,850 close to the first stop. The first stop could do resistance.
In addition, the rebound was made on a “V bottom” structure, it is not impossible that the price will come back close to the lowest at $1,790 to change the dynamic. If the sellers still have their hands on the price, they will be able to make a new low. The momentum has picked up, but there is still enough febrile.
The dollar falls, it is not yet won for risky assets
We were talking about it last week, the dollar has built a bearish divergence on a daily basis. The momentum will also need to turn bearish on a weekly basis.
The momentum is bearishbut it remains above the support daily for now. We will have to be vigilant, it is not yet won for risky assets. Seeing a weakening dollar bodes well for risky assets. Since the dollar bottomed last year, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have been falling. We will have to watch carefully what the dollar index is doing in the weeks and months to come.
The stock market rebounds. Simple correction in a bearish momentum or change of momentum?
The S&P 500 is on resistance
The S&P 500 has found buyers at the level of $3,900. At the moment the momentum remains bearish, but buyers will have the opportunity to change the momentum:
The S&P 500 takes advantage of the weaker dollar to bounce at the level of $3,900. For the moment it remains a rebound, because there is no structure. Moreover, it is on the resistance (red) and at the first stop. It seems quite possible for the S&P 500 to start falling again to build a local bottom while maintaining the current low. The lowest at $3,800 should be kept by buyers.
The momentum is bullish and could even create a bullish divergence in the event of a fence above 65. This would show that sellers lose strength.
Coinbase rebounds, stock can push up to $104?
The action still displays 80% increase since the low found two weeks ago at $41. It must be said that Coinbase had lost 90% since the highs in November 2021.
Coinbase finds buyers near $40. At the moment it is only a bounce. It remains entirely possible for the action to move towards the first stop at $104. For now, the dynamic remains bearish and it will take more, especially on a weekly time scale, to be able to think that the price has found a low point. The momentum, however, remains bearish on a daily basis.
If Coinbase stock manages to develop a bottom at these levels, it would be a good sign for cryptocurrencies. The action needs to recover to show that investors are once again interested in cryptocurrency.
$11,000 postponed for NASDAQ
Last week, we talked about a probable return to $11,000 if the index continues to fall. The buyers have decided to defend at the level of $11,700 :
We thought that the rack to $12,200 had let go, but the buyers managed to take it back. If the movement continues, it is possible to find the NASDAQ at the level of the resistance to $13,000. The dynamic becomes bullish on a daily basis, but it will take more to annihilate the recent weeks of declines.
Momentum is bullish and could form a bullish divergence on a daily basis in the event of a close above 65. Buyers need to keep pushing.
In the end, the Bitcoin is defending its ultimate support at $29,000. The buyers are rescuing this level and the momentum is once again bullish on a daily basis. Buyers need to keep defending these levels as the next strong support is at the former all-time high at $19,000. The dollar is weak. It must continue to weaken if capital is to return to risky assets like cryptocurrencies. The equity market is rebounding, but is already close to resistance. It is possible that the stock market retraces in an attempt to develop a bottom. Risky assets have not gone out of business even if they are recovering.
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